This blog article below was written back in 2018 when my bond ladder was working great. It still is. It was true that a CD or bond ladder purchased back then would have been an excellent investment because interest rates have gone down substantially raising the value of existing CDs and Bonds.

As a bond and CD ladder investor you are still benefiting from those previous purchases that are still in your inventory, but now what do you do with new funds from expiring bonds or CDs? That is the big question.

Do you buy a fixed income investment paying almost nothing but you feel is safe, or do you buy stocks which are at a all time high? No easy choices. They call in TINA, there is no other alternative for investors other than stocks. The problem is if stocks are going up because of that and not earnings, then will they collapse at some point in time. Stocks are more risky than bonds as far as return of capital.

Lately bond investors have been buying the perceived less risky type of stocks, like Utilities (XLU) and Real Estate (IYR), because they pay a good dividend and to a lessor degree some commodities (DBC) as a hedge against inflation.

At this point in time there is no easy safe answer of where to put your money. The markets are so distorted fundamental analysis no longer works. -Robert Fowler

The Certificate of Deposit (CD) is Still King (2018)

Retirement Savings – Safety

With interest rates now rising, it may be the time to invest in a certificate of deposit ladder or US Treasury Bills.

In saving money, safety has always had an opportunity cost; that is, lower rates of return than for instruments incurring greater risk. In retirement, we don’t want to loose our savings, that is for sure.  So, how can we offer ourselves the greatest opportunity while we are obsessed more with the return OF our money than the return ON it?

The Certificate of Deposit, or CD, is Still King

Regardless of the trend of recent decades toward greater sophistication in retirement savings, the certificate of deposit, or CD, is still king.  The obvious advantage of the CD over traditional savings accounts is that they typically yield significantly higher interest; with the primary drawback being the commitment that one incurs to maintain the deposit for a specified period, usually from six months to five years.  The longer the term of the CD, the higher the associated interest rate.

So, how do we maximize growth in CDs while maintaining access to funds we need?  One common method is “laddering,” that is, purchasing multiple overlapping CDs with maturity dates spread out so that funds are made regularly available without having to suffer the lower rates associated with shorter terms.  Today, however, we have the added concern that interest rates are so low that the added interest of a longer term is possibly not worth the risk of having the money obligated when rates go up.

Shopping for CDs is a balancing act; weighing the available rates against the obligation of the time deposit.  To add complexity to the decision, penalties for early withdrawals vary significantly between banks.  The penalty for withdrawing early from one bank may be quite stiff, while another bank may only penalize the account a small portion of the interest earned, often as little as one month’s interest.  Especially today, comparing penalties is a critical part of CD shopping.

CD rates on Fidelity.com as of 9/25 are as follow:
3mo       6mo       9mo       1yr         2yr         3yr         5yr         10yr
2.15%    2.25%    2.35%   2.55%   2.90%  3.10%  3.40%   3.55%

So, what are the alternatives to the certificate of deposit?  In an effort to retain old depositors and woo new ones, banks are occasionally offering high yield savings or money market accounts with interest rates comparable to CDs, but with complete liquidity.  It is wise to keeps one’s eyes open for offers like this, but one must be wary of limitations and fine print.

Finally, there is another great saving option that offers baby boomers more liquidity than a CD and that is US Treasury Bills, a great safe place to keep some of your retirement savings.

Treasury Bills

Treasury bills, or T-bills, are sold in terms ranging from a few days to 52 weeks. Bills are typically sold at a discount from the par amount (also called face value). For instance, you might pay $990 for a $1,000 bill. When the bill matures, you would be paid $1,000. The difference between the purchase price and face value is interest. It is possible for a bill auction to result in a price equal to par, which means that Treasury will issue and redeem the securities at par value.

You can sell T-bills and get your cash the next day!

You can buy bills from  TreasuryDirect. You can also buy them through a bank or broker.

2018 outlook: navigating rate hikes

Originally posted 2020-09-06 10:05:37.